India’s goods imports from China are likely to surpass $100 billion in February itself, and in FY25 total imports from the country could exceed the record $101.73 billion achieved in 2023-24 financial year, officials familiar with provisional government data said.
After factoring in double-digit growth in Chinese imports and expected shipments through March 2025, the total imports from China are projected to set a new record. Cumulative Chinese imports in the first 10 months of the current financial year (April 2024-January 2025) have already touched $95.01 billion compared to $85.91 billion in the same period last year, posting a 10.6% growth. Imports surged in January to $10.48 billion, showing over 17% year-on-year growth.
The Indo-China trade balance continues to tilt in favour of Beijing as Chinese imports grow while India’s exports contract, leading to a widening trade deficit. The deficit occurs because India imports more from China than it exports to the neighbouring country.
India’s exports to China contracted by 14.85%, from $13.48 billion in April 2023-January 2024 to $11.48 billion in April 2024-January 2025. The export contraction was particularly sharp in January 2025 at $483 million. India exported goods worth $1.05 billion that month compared to $1.54 billion a year ago, showing a decline of over 31%.
The trade deficit with China in the first 10 months of 2024-25 reached $83.52 billion, nearly matching the full fiscal year deficit of $85.06 billion in 2023-24.
Key Chinese imports include electronic components, computer hardware, telecom instruments, dairy machinery, organic chemicals, electronic instruments, electrical machinery, plastic raw materials and pharmaceutical ingredients. India exports iron ore, marine products, petroleum products, organic chemicals, spices, castor oil and telecom equipment to China.
Officials justify the import growth, noting that most Chinese goods are raw materials or intermediary inputs that support the ‘Make in India’ programme. “Most goods imported from China are capital goods, intermediate goods and raw materials like active pharmaceutical ingredients, auto components, electronic parts and mobile phone components used for making finished products for exports,” a senior commerce ministry official said, requesting anonymity as they are not authorised to speak to the media.
India’s overall merchandise exports from April 2024 to January 2025 grew by 1.39% to $358.91 billion, while imports rose by 7.43% to $601.9 billion. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $242.99 billion from $206.29 billion in the same period last year.
Experts say the rupee’s depreciation against the dollar has worsened the country’s trade balance, particularly affecting petroleum imports which saw a 6.42% increase to $154.83 billion in the first 10 months of the current financial year. India imports more than 87% of the crude oil it processes and pays in dollars.
