Global production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, accounting for just 0.8 per cent of total aviation fuel consumption, according to estimates released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The industry body said airlines are expected to spend about USD 4.3 billion on SAF this year.

Commenting on the outlook, Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, said 2026 appears set to be another disappointing year for SAF production.

Five years after the aviation industry committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, SAF is still expected to account for less than 1 per cent of airline fuel use. Walsh said the industry’s pathway to meeting 65 per cent of its fuel needs through SAF by 2050 is becoming more challenging due to what he described as poorly sequenced government policies and a lack of interest from oil companies.

Calls for Stronger Policy Support

Walsh said the current energy market environment should accelerate the development of renewable fuels, including SAF.

However, he said the need for greater energy security, job creation and climate action has not yet translated into the incentives required to build a viable SAF market.

To accelerate SAF deployment, IATA has called for coordinated action across four key areas. These include expanding renewable energy supplies to support SAF production, ensuring adequate feedstocks and clean energy availability, and providing open access to fuel infrastructure such as pipelines, storage facilities and airport fuel systems.

The association also called for stronger policy support through production incentives and investment frameworks that reduce risk and provide certainty before mandates are introduced. In addition, it stressed the need for a global SAF market with sufficient volumes and commercially viable pricing.

Industry Backs Global SAF Market

According to IATA, a book-and-claim system is necessary to transform SAF from a local market into a global one by allowing airlines and producers to participate regardless of location.

The association said a global SAF market should also be supported by harmonised standards to ensure consistent rules and fair competition.

E-SAF Targets Face Significant Challenges

Alongside biofuel-based SAF, IATA said electro-SAF, or e-SAF, is expected to play an increasingly important role in reducing aviation emissions.

E-SAF is produced through a power-to-liquid process that converts renewable electricity into aviation fuel. Unlike conventional SAF, it does not require biomass or waste oils but relies on large amounts of renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water and carbon dioxide.

The European Union and the United Kingdom have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. However, IATA said global operating and under-construction production capacity currently stands at only about 0.02 million tonnes, with just one production facility currently in operation.

According to the association, around 20 commercial-scale refineries would be needed to achieve the mandated volume. It also noted that no new final investment decisions for e-SAF facilities have been announced over the past year.

EU, UK Mandates ‘Detached From Reality’

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, criticised the e-SAF targets set by the EU and the UK.

She said the 2030 targets are “beyond unrealistic” and argued that imposing mandates before enabling production capacity would increase costs rather than accelerate decarbonisation.

According to Thomsen, such an approach risks diverting limited resources away from measures that directly reduce carbon emissions.

She also pointed to Europe’s high renewable energy costs, saying a more effective strategy would focus first on expanding renewable energy production, lowering costs and building e-SAF capacity before introducing mandates.

Passenger Support for Decarbonisation Remains Strong

IATA’s latest passenger survey, conducted in April 2026, found continued support for efforts to reduce aviation emissions.

According to the survey, 89 per cent of passengers believe the industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back their climate efforts. A similar proportion said flying remains essential and should be made more sustainable rather than restricted.

The survey also found that around 66 per cent of passengers are willing to pay more to offset emissions, while nearly 88 per cent expect ticket prices to rise because of sustainability-related investments.

When asked how funds should be used, 25 per cent of respondents favoured investment in SAF, while 23 per cent preferred spending on emissions-reduction technologies. Only 10 per cent prioritised taxes.

Sustainability Influencing Travel Choices

Sustainability considerations are increasingly shaping consumer behaviour, according to the survey.

Nearly half of travellers, or 48 per cent, said they consider carbon emissions when selecting flights. Among those passengers, more than 85 per cent said emissions influence their decisions.

Around three-quarters of respondents also said they prefer airlines with stronger environmental performance.

IATA said the findings indicate that passengers expect the aviation sector to continue its decarbonisation efforts and are broadly supportive of the transition, even as cost and convenience remain important considerations.